This is my last minute pick on the match and I feel good betting on Korda at +2.5 sets (+100)

Here is why:

Sebastian Korda has the opportunity to establish his career with this match. Returning to the place where he initially made a breakthrough, winning three matches at the 2020 French Open, he is now facing a wounded World No. 3 whom he has encountered three times in his ATP Tour career.

Two years ago at the Monte Carlo Masters, Korda faced Alcaraz and emerged victorious in three sets, joining the select few who have managed to defeat the Spaniard on clay in the past three seasons. This victory came in Korda's first attempt against Alcaraz. However, Korda would later be eliminated in straight sets at the French Open a few months later. It is worth noting that Alcaraz reached the semifinals of that tournament as one of the top contenders, indicating that he was in top form.

This upcoming match will serve as a true test for Alcaraz in this tournament. Considering his compromised health condition and the fact that he will be facing an opponent who has previously defeated him and has shown good form and confidence throughout the clay season, I believe Alcaraz will likely drop at least one set.